A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
